Appalachian State vs Toledo Spread Pick, Camellia Bowl
NCAAF: Saturday December 17th, 5:30pm EST
Spread: Toledo -1.5, 57.5
College Football Pick Against the Spread by: Wes Salvato of SportsPicksForum.com
Last 30: 27 Wins – 12 Losses: 69%
Unit Gain/Loss: +4272 Units
The 2016 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl features two 9 win teams as the Appalachian State Mountaineers take on the Toledo Rockets. Appalachian State posted a solid 9-3 record on the season, winning eight of their final nine games. The Mountaineers return to the Camellia Bowl, last season, they faced Ohio U. and won the game 31-29.
Toledo came within a victory of playing for the MAC championship and had a solid 9-3 season under first-year coach Jason Candle, who was promoted from offensive coordinator. Logan Woodside’s familiarity with the offense played a role in him being one of the nation’s most underrated quarterbacks as the Rockets has one of the best units in the nation.
Ever since Appalachian State upset Michigan on the road several years back, the former darlings of FCS football are now a legitimate threat to FBS schools in conference or non-conference action. The Mountaineers team starts with the run as sophomore Jalin Moore (1,367 yards, 10 TDs) and Marcus Cox (854 yards, 9 TDs) are a very strong combination. When Marcus Cox rushes for over 100 yards the Mountaineers are 8-0.
Appalachian State is not a great passing team as they rank 104th in the nation so if you can slow down the rushing attack you can slow down the offense that averages 29.1 PPG. Defensively, Appalachian State allows just 326.5 yards per game (15th) and just 125.8 rushing yards per game (23rd).
The Rockets had a run going toward the end of the season with six wins in seven games, but fell to Western Michigan 55-35 in their finale. QB Logan Woodside led the nation with 43 touchdown passes and threw only 9 interceptions. Toledo ranked 8th in the nation in passing yards per game (329.1) and fourth in total offense (529.8 YPG). The Rockets offense also features RB Kareem Hunt who rushed for 1355 yards and eight touchdowns.
Toledo’s defense is just OK and against the run they allowed 165.7 yards per game, ranking 60th in the nation. This is a stat they will need to improve upon this stat vs the heavy run featured offense of Appalachian State.
The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Appalachian State is also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points, and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up win. Toledo is 8-0-1 ATS their last 9 non-conference games and 4-0-1 ATS their last 5 vs the Sun Belt Conference. Look for this Toledo offense to get the job done vs the Mountaineers.