Broncos vs Chargers Free NFL Prediction, 10-13-2016 – Precision Picks

Broncos vs Chargers Free NFL Prediction
Denver Broncos (4-1; 4-1 ATS; 3-2 O/U)
vs San Diego Chargers (1-4; 3-2 ATS; 4-1 O/U)
Kick Off: 8:25pm EST
The Line: Chargers +3, 45.5
Denver Broncos vs San Diego Chargers Free NFL Prediction by “Slick” Rick Williams of Precision Picks
Once again the San Diego Chargers have dug themselves a very deep hole and are currently (1-4) and they have lost their last 3 games by a total of 8 points.  The Chargers sit at the bottom of the AFC West looking up at the Broncos and Raiders.  The Chargers get a chance to chip away at the lead when they host the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.
Denver suffered their 1st loss of the season this past Sunday losing to the Atlanta Falcons at home, 23-16.  Starting QB Trevor Siemian did not play due to a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder.  He is listed day-to-day and the Broncos are hoping he is ready to go Thursday night.
This may be a division opponent but recently it has been a one sided contest.  The Denver Broncos have won 9 out of the last 10 games against the San Diego Chargers, straight up.  However, against the spread the Broncos are 6-4.  This matchup has also trended towards the Under which has hit 6 out of the last 10 games.
The Denver Broncos ground game is averaging 101.4 yards per contest and CJ Anderson leads the way with 293 yards and three touchdowns.  Anderson has struggled recently and has not rushed for more than 50 yards since week two.  The Chargers run defense is solid and they allow 83.6 ypg which ranks them 8th in the NFL and we expect them to only get better with the addition of 1st round pick Joey Bosa.
Phillip Rivers was solid connecting on 21 of 30 passes for a season-high 359 yards with four touchdowns, but tossed two interceptions in last week’s lost to the Raiders.  The veteran quarterback has been solid this season, throwing for over 1100 yards with 11 TD’s to just 3 interceptions.  The Chargers had big trouble holding onto the ball, fumbling the ball five times two of which were recovered by Oakland.
What plagues the Chargers is not their offense, which ranks 2nd in the NFL scoring 30 PPG, but their pass defense.  San Diego allows 291 passing yards per game and 28 PPG.  Their secondary is riddled with injuries and they have struggled to defend the pass.
Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games
Broncos are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games
Broncos are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss
Broncos are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss
Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC West
Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC West
Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss
Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC
Road team is 16-6-5 ATS in their last 27 meetings
Broncos vs Chargers Free NFL Prediction: Broncos -3
With Siemian back in the lineup I am siding with the Broncos on the road.  The Chargers pass defense is awful and with the Broncos struggling a tad running the ball, they will test this bad secondary.  San Diego has a great offense but the Broncos are an elite defense and that is especially true in the secondary which allows only 185 passing yards per game. This may not be a high scoring affair but expect the Broncos to cover the small spread on the road with Siemian back under center.

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