Mississippi State vs BYU Expert Prediction, 10-14-2016 – BetSheet.com
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs BYU Cougars
Free Pick by: Dennis Mathews
Odds: BYU -7, o/u OFF
Time: Oct 14, 10:15pm EST
Mississippi State had some trouble with Auburn last week and could not get the run game going vs the Tigers defense rushing for only 103 yards on the ground. MSU’s sophomore QB Nick Fitzgerald has been decent this year throwing for 603 yards with seven touchdowns and only two interceptions.
The Bulldogs offense is now averaging 25.6 points per game, ranking them 92nd overall. Mississippi State has a solid defense but they had trouble stopping Auburn last week conceding 204 rushing yards. On the season, they are allowing an average of 26.2 points per game, ranking them 60th overall.
This game will be a tough test for Mississippi State as Provo, UT is typically a tough away venue due to the loyal fans and high altitude.
After losing three straight games in the middle of September to Utah, UCLA and West Virginia, they have bounced back to win two straight. Last Friday, BYU hosted Toledo and came out with a narrow 55-53 victory to give the Rockets their first loss. This past Saturday, BYU went into East Lansing and beat up on Michigan State 31-14.
QB Taysom Hill still seems rusty and has thrown for 1255 yards, 6 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. The real star of this offense has been RB Jamaal Williams. Williams was coming off a 286-yard performance against Toledo when he put 163 yards and two touchdowns on the Spartans. On the season, he’s second in the nation with 866 rushing yards, and has found the end zone 10 times.
The BYU defense was outstanding stopping the MSU offense last weekend, holding them to just 121 yards in the air, and 85 rushing yards. BYU concedes an average of 25.8 points per game, ranking them 58th overall.
Mississippi State vs BYU Expert Prediction
What is Dennis Mathews Predicting?
“The X factor in this matchup is BYU’s Jamaal Williams. MSU has a strong rush defense but let’s take a look at what Williams has done the last 3 games:
Michigan St conceded on average 136 rushing yards and Williams rushed for 163 yards
Toledo conceded on average 152 rushing yards and Williams rushed for 286 yards, 9.5 yards per rush and 5 TD’s.
West Virginia conceded on average 191 rushing yards and Williams rushed for 169 yards.
Taysom Hill has been far from impressive this season but the offense have been relying heavily on the run and are able to control the clock. BYU’s won’t have to worry much about the MSU passing game and this is a good matchup for the BYU defense as they thrive on stopping the run. MSU will want to run the ball but BYU should be able to make key stops.
I’m taking BYU at home to cover the -7 spread. Provo is a tough place to play and it appears that BYU has found their identity. BYU is 5-1 ATS on the season and the Bulldogs are just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a double-digit loss at home.”
Mississippi State vs BYU Expert Prediction: BYU -7