July 4th Fireworks: Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction 7-4-2016


First Pitch: 1:35pm EST, Boston, MA

Starters: Nick Martinez (1-1, 5.00 ERA) vs Rick Porcello (9-2, 3.78 ERA)

The Line: Boston Red Sox -180 / Texas Rangers +160 – Over/Under: 10.5

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red SoxMLB Pick & Prediction by Nathan Powers of Precision Picks

Boston bounced back on Sunday to beat the Angels 10-5 after they were trounced on Saturday, 21-2.  Perhaps that game was a wake up call for the Red Sox who ended a streak of three straight series losses.  Today they hand the ball to Rick Porcello who is looking for his 10th win on the season.

The Rangers are starting to slide a bit with four losses in the last five games and gave up a total of 22 runs in setbacks on Saturday and Sunday at the AL-worst Minnesota Twins. Texas is 3-4 on its 10-game road trip and will finish out the first half with four straight at home against Minnesota before heading into the All-Star break.

Adrian Beltre has been hot for the Rangers, collecting nine RBI’s in his last eight games, and now has driven in 52 runs on the season to go along with 12 home runs and a .280 batting average.  The Rangers deep lineup is averaging 4.91 runs per game, ranking them sixth overall, and have a .265 team batting average.

The Red Sox are averaging a league leading 5.51 runs per game, and also have the best team batting average in the Majors at .288.

Why My Money is on the Total

Porcello has had a tough time against Texas in his career, posting a 5.86 ERA to go along with a 4-4 record in 43 career innings pitched. Elvis Andrus is 3 for 19 against Porcello, while Adrian Betlre is 8 for 21 with a home run and Rougned Odor is 2 for 3. Nick Martinez faced the Red Sox a few weeks ago and conceded four runs in six innings finishing with the no decision, and has now allowed six runs in 13 career innings pitched against Boston. Hanley Ramirez is 3 for 5 with two home runs against Martinez, while Mookie Betts is 3 for 7 and Dustin Pedroia is 3 for 6.  I think the bats remain hot and this game goes over the total 10.5.

Over is 4-1-1 in Rangers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record

Over is 8-3-1 in Rangers last 12 during game 1 of a series

Over is 13-6-2 in Rangers last 21 road games

Over is 4-0 in Martinezs last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Over is 5-2-1 in Martinezs last 8 starts overall

Over is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Over is 21-6 in Red Sox last 27 vs. American League West

Over is 8-3 in Red Sox last 11 overall

Over is 10-1 in Porcellos last 11 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game

Pick: OVER 10.5

Nathan Powers is 23-11 L7 +1215, 69 Wins – 49 Losses L30

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