Red Sox vs Angels, 7-31-2016 – ATS Expert Prediction & Odds

Red Sox vs Angels free predictionBoston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels
MLB Betting Pick & Prediction
Odds: Red Sox -125, 8.5
Game Time: 3:35pm EST

Red Sox vs Angels pick free prediction by Brian Quincey of the ATS Experts

PITCHING MATCHUP: Boston, Steven Wright (12-5, 3.12 ERA) vs LA, Tyler Skaggs (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
Boston is desperate for a win after going 5-5 their last 10 games.  .500 ball does not help their run for an AL East title or Wild Card spot.  The Red Sox sit 2.0 games behind leader Toronto and 1.5 games behind the Orioles for 2nd place.

The Angels are 13.5 games behind the AL West lead and are all but out of the playoff picture but have shown signs of life after winning 10 of their last 15 games.  The LA offense has been solid and currently rank 4th in the Majors with a .269 BA and rank 11th in runs scored averaging 4.63 RPG.  The long ball (96) has been sparse this season and their starting pitching has been their achilles heel with a 4.38 team ERA.

Tyler Skaggs takes the hill, and he’s 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and five strikeouts this season. This will be Skaggs’ first career game against the Red Sox.

Steven Wright gets the nod for Boston and he’s 12-5 with a 3.12 ERA and 109 strikeouts this season. Wright is 2-1 with a 6.61 ERA and eight strikeouts in his career against the Angels.

The Red Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 Sunday games and 4-1 in Wrights last 5 starts. The Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 4 of a series and 5-0 in Skaggs’ last 5 starts. The Red Sox are 10-23 in the last 33 meetings.

Betting Trends

Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter
Red Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 Sunday games
Red Sox are 4-1 in Wrights last 5 starts
Red Sox are 7-2 in Wrights last 9 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game
Angels are 8-1 in their last 9 home games
Angels are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Angels are 4-1 in Skaggs’ last 5 home starts
Under is 7-0 in Red Sox last 7 road games
Under is 10-2 in Red Sox last 12 road games vs. a left-handed starter
Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 vs. American League East
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles
Red Sox vs Angels Free Prediction: Under 8.5

This is a good pitching matchup with Steven Wright having a great year and Skaggs a  young pitcher that has also thrown well in limited appearances.  Both offenses are potent but I see this game as low scoring going under the 8.5 run total.  The betting public heavily favors the total, as predicted, which is a key indicator to fade the public and put your money on the smart side.

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