Tigers vs Red Sox Free Pick & Analysis, 7-27-2016
When: Wednesday, July 27, 1:35 PM ET
Line: Detroit Tigers (+108) at Boston Red Sox (-118); total: 10.5
Free Pick & Analysis by Fred Berns
Starting for the Detroit Tigers in the final game of this three-game set is Michael Fulmer (9-2, 2.41 ERA). He gave up five runs over five innings with four strikeouts and two walks in a no-decision Friday against the Chicago White Sox. Fulmer has been impressive and the Tigers have now won their last five games with Fulmer as their starter. The right-hander has a 6-1 record in his last 10 starts with a 1.28 ERA.
The Red Sox will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez (2-4, 6.70 ERA). The lefty has excelled since returning from Triple-A Pawtucket, surrendering just three runs over 12.1 innings. He held Detroit to a single run over seven innings in his only start against them last season.
Pitching edge favors Detroit Tigers
The Red Sox lead the majors in RBIs (531), hits (1,009), batting average (.290), runs scored (557) and on-base percentage (.356) this season. Providing the impetus for the Red Sox’ resurgence is the red-hot David Ortiz. He leads the Red Sox in homers (25), RBIs (84), batting average (.328) and on-base percentage (.418) this campaign. With his three-run blast on Tuesday, Ortiz now has racked up 997 extra-base hits in his career.
The Tigers lineup can be just as dangerous. They have hit a total of 130 home runs this season, sixth-most in the entire majors. Ian Kinsler leads Detroit in home runs (20), RBIs (57) and hits (118) this season. Miguel Cabrera also has 111 hits with 20 HR’s and 59 RBI’s.
Batting Edge favors Boston Red Sox
Tigers vs Red Sox Free Pick & Analysis
This is Fulmer’s first trip to Fenway park which may be a little overwhelming for the young pitcher. I have also noticed the possibility of some arm fatigue which is understandable for a young pitcher late in the season. I see too much offense for both young pitchers in this matchup and expect to see this game go Over 10.5 runs.
Over is 4-0 in Fulmer’s last 4 road starts
Over is 4-0 in Fulmer’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record
Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 games following a loss
Over is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 overall
Over is 7-1 in Rodriguez’s last 8 starts vs. American League Central
Tigers vs Red Sox Free Pick: Over 10.5